Durable Goods Production Growing, but Slowly

The durable goods industrial production index was 106.0 in December 2015. In December, the one-month rate of change was 0.5 percent, which was the third time in four months that production increased less than 1.0 percent. The annual rate of growth decelerated to 2.1 percent, which was the 10th straight month that the growth rate decelerated. This was the slowest rate of annual growth since May 2014.

The best leading indicators for durable goods production are housing permits, durable goods new orders, and consumer durable goods spending. Housing permits have grown at a somewhat accelerating rate in recent months. The one-month rate of change in durable goods new orders has contracted for nine months and the annual rate of change continue to contract but at a slower rate last month. Durable goods spending is still growing at a relatively strong rate and above its historical average. 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries. Click on the links below to see how each industry is faring.

Accelerating Growth: food/beverage; printing

Decelerating Growth: aerospace; appliances; automotive; construction materials; custom processors; durable goods; electronics/computers/telecommunications; forming/fabricating (non-auto); furniture manufacturing; hardware; HVAC; industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components; medical; off-road/construction machinery; petrochemical processors; plastic/rubber products; power generation; ship building; textiles/clothing/leather goods; wood/paper products

Accelerating Contraction: machinery/equipment; metalcutting job shops; military; oil/gas-field/mining machinery; primary metals; pumps/valves/plumbing products

Decelerating Contraction: none