Metalworking Forecasting Tools
Gardner Publications, Inc. has created a number of tools to forecast the metalworking industry. Annually we publish the Capital Spending Survey and Forecast, which has been around for 39 years. In 2007, we started the Metalworking Business Index (MBI). The MBI is a monthly survey of durable goods manufacturers that functions in much the same way as the ISM's Purchasing Manager's Index. Links to these forecasting tools can be found at the bottom of the page.
Also, we know that machine tool sales (and other products necessary to cut metal - like cutting tools) are driven by changes in industrial production. So, we've created a series of industry specific charts that will help you understand where industrial production is headed. Through the use of rate of change curves, we can compare two data series over time to show that one set of data is a leading indicator of a second set of data. These charts will help you understand what drives changes in industrial production in the industries that by the most machine tools.
To see our forecast for machine tool sales, click on the Durable Goods link in the table below. The forecast is on the last chart on that page.
Industry Oct. '12 Sep. '12 Percentage Point Change Direction Trend (Months) Historical Direction (Lo,Avg,Hi) Rate of Change Trend (Months)
Aerospace 7.67 7.92 -0.25 Growing 20 13,42,77 Slower 2
Computers & Electronics 3.55 3.25 0.30 Growing 30 75,193,311 Faster 1
Construction Machinery 19.44 20.31 -0.87 Growing 24 4,27,54 Slower 4
Engines, Turbines, & Power 25.28 30.07 -4.79 Growing 21 10,27,51 Slower 8
Farm Equipment -6.44 -6.61 0.17 Contracting 14 10,22,45 Slower 3
Machinery 8.46 9.22 -0.76 Growing 25 22,62,149 Slower 13
Medical 7.41 7.27 0.14 Growing 90 83,104,122 Faster 20
Motor Vehicles & Parts 19.22 19.92 -0.70 Growing 30 6,37,52 Slower 1
Oil 14.23 14.44 -0.21 Growing 22 7,29,64 Slower 6
Consumer Durable Goods 8.19 8.68 -0.49 Growing 29 7,51,108 Slower 2
Business Durable Goods 5.99 6.43 -0.44 Growing 26 9,61,112 Slower 6
Combined Durable Goods 6.87 7.33 -0.46 Growing 27 8,54,112 Slower 2
This table highlights the value of the 12-month rate of change curve for industrial production for the industries that are most critical to the metalworking market. Why do we focus on industrial production? Because it is the leading indicator for machine tool sales. As manufacturers produce more, using up more of their available capacity, they buy more capital equipment and other products needed to cut metal. The converse is also true. To get an idea of where the industrial production, and, consequently, machine tool sales, for these markets might be headed, click on the links in the table above.