Durable Goods Production Highest Since Start of Pandemic

In October, the index for production of durable goods was 103.6. Compared with one year ago, the index contracted 4.2%, which was the sixth consecutive month of decelerating contraction. This was the slowest rate of contraction since March. 

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, contracted 8.6% this month. This was the eighth consecutive month of accelerating contraction. The key leading indicator of production—durable goods new orders—appears to have bottomed out, according to its rate of change, and indicating that production should do the same soon. Also, consumer durable goods spending, which leads durable goods new orders, reached an all-time high for four months in a row, growing at an accelerating each of those four months.

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: appliances

Decelerating Growth: electronics/computers

Accelerating Contraction: aerospace, construction materials, durable goods, food/beverage processing, forming/fabricating (non-auto), furniture, hardware, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, medical, metalcutting job shops, military, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, petrochemical processors, power generation, primary metals, printing, pumps/valves/plumbing products, textiles/clothing/leather goods, wood/paper products

Decelerating Contraction: automotive, custom processors, HVAC, off-road/construction machinery, plastic/rubber products, ship/boat building

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