Economic News Blog
Posted by: Steven Kline, Jr. 21. October 2019

Durable Goods Production Contracts for First Time since 2016

In September, the index for production of durable goods was 109.2, which was down 0.4% from one year ago. This ended a streak of 33 consecutive months of growth in the durable goods production index. The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, grew 1.9% this month. However, the annual rate of growth decelerated for the seventh-straight month. September’s growth rate was the slowest since September 2017, and it is likely to decelerate even more, as the month-over-month rate of growth has been relatively weak the last six months. Further, the key leading indicator of production – durable goods new orders – is indicating slower growth in industrial production.

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: aerospace, medical, military

Decelerating Growth: automotive, construction materials, durable goods, electronics/computers/telecommunications, forming/fabricating (non-auto), hardware, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, metalcutting job shops, off-road/construction machinery, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, power generation, primary metals, pumps/valves/plumbing products, ship/boat building

Accelerating Contraction: custom processors, food/beverage, HVAC, petrochemical processors, plastics/rubber products, printing, textiles/clothing/leather goods, wood/paper products

Decelerating Contraction: appliances, furniture

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