Research
5/18/2020

Durable Goods Production Contracts at Fastest Rate Ever

In April, the index for production of durable goods was 79.9, which was the lowest level for the index since July 2009. Compared with one year ago, the index contracted 26.4%, which was the fastest rate of month-over-month contraction in the history of the index.

The annual rate of change, which is easier to correlate with other data points, contracted 3.0% this month. This was the second consecutive month of accelerating contraction. The key leading indicator of production—durable goods new orders—is indicating further contraction in production. And, of course, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to cause significant contraction in industrial production in May as well.

 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries.

Accelerating Growth: 

Decelerating Growth: construction materials, electronics/computers, medical, military

Accelerating Contraction: aerospace, automotive, custom processors, durable goods, food/beverage processing, forming/fabricating (non-auto), furniture, hardware, HVAC, industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components, machinery/equipment, metalcutting job shops, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, off-road/construction machinery, petrochemical processors, plastic/rubber products, power generation, primary metals, printing, pumps/valves/plumbing products, ship/boat building, textiles/clothing/leather goods, wood/paper products

Decelerating Contraction: appliances

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