The GBI: Metalworking rate of change does appear to be in the initial stages of a turn. If it bottoms in the first quarter of 2020, then it would be expected that the rate of change in cutting tool orders would bottom around the summer of 2020.
Compared with one year ago, cutting tool orders contracted -2.6%; however, this was the slowest rate of month-over-month contraction since April 2019.
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The change in the 10-year Treasury rate is a good leading indicator of housing permits. Based on the trend in the change of the 10-year Treasury rate, housing permits should grow at an accelerating rate through the first half of the year.
January’s housing permits were 113,000, increasing almost 20% from one year ago.
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The Coronavirus, also known as COVID-19 may have a significant impact on the global supply chain serving the Moldmaking community. Moldmaking Technology Magazine and Gardner Intelligence can help Moldmakers stay a step ahead.
In January, the year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury rate was -0.44%, which was the 13th consecutive month the change was negative. The low change in the real 10-year Treasury rate tends to be a positive signal for durable goods manufacturing.
The real 10-yr Treasury rate was negative for the fifth time in eight months, keeping the annual change in the rate negative for the 13th month in a row.
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The annual rate of contraction in the money supply, -8.1%, decelerated for third month in a row, which is a positive sign for capital equipment consumption. A decelerating contraction in the annual rate of change in the money supply tends to lead to a decelerating contraction in capital equipment spending.
Accelerating growth in the monetary base is a positive sign for capital equipment consumption later in 2020.
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