It seems likely that the rate of contraction in the money supply has bottomed, which would be a positive sign for capital equipment consumption. A decelerating contraction in the annual rate of change in the money supply tends to lead to a decelerating contraction in capital equipment spending.

Durable goods orders contracted at an accelerating rate for the third month in a row. This trend will likely continue through the first quarter of 2020.

November marks only the second time in 2019 that shops with more than 250 employees have reported an overall contraction in business activity.  Prior to the July 2019 reading which fell just below 50, the last time that large firms reported contracting conditions was during the third quarter of 2016.

With the recent month-over-month growth in durable goods spending and the declining year-over-year change in the 10-year Treasury rate , there could be some modest acceleration in the annual rate of growth heading into the fourth quarter.

The slower month-over-month growth, as well as quarter-over-quarter growth, indicates that the annual rate of growth in income will continue to decelerate in the months ahead.