The change in the 10-year Treasury rate is a good leading indicator of housing permits and construction spending. A decreasing year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury rate should lead to increases in these data points down the line.

The annual rate of growth is likely to decelerate even more as the month-over-month rate of growth has been relatively weak the last five months. Further, the key leading indicator of production – durable goods new orders – is indicating slower growth in industrial production.

The GBI: Metalworking backlog index indicated a peak in capacity utilization at the end of last year, as the annual rate of growth in backlogs peaked in October 2017. The backlog index tends to lead the annual rate of growth in capacity utilization by seven-to-10 months.

The change in the 10-year Treasury rate is a good leading indicator of housing permits, construction spending, consumer durable-goods spending, durable goods new orders, and capital equipment spending. A decreasing year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury rate should lead to increases in all of these data points down the line.

The Gardner Business Index sustained the same growth rate as recorded in the prior month with a reading of 50.8. The Index has fallen 6.2% from the same month one-year ago. Index readings above 50 indicate expanding activity while values below 50 indicate contracting activity.