Economic News Blog
Posted by: Steven Kline, Jr. 5. June 2019

Durable Goods Spending Growth Continues 2019 Trend

In April, the month-over-month rate of growth for durable goods spending was 2.9%, which continued the trend of significantly slower month-over-month growth since December 2018. In fact, the month-over-month rate of growth was slower than the historical average of 5.5% since September 2018.  Because of the relatively weak month-over-month rate of growth, the annual rate of growth decelerated for the eighth consecutive month. It fell to 4.2%, the slowest rate of annual growth since September 2010.

In April, the year-over-year change in the 10-year Treasury rate was -0.53%, which was sixth consecutive month the change declined and the fourth-straight month the change was below zero. April’s change in the rate was the lowest since January 2018. A decreasing year-over-year change in the real 10-year Treasury rate should lead to increases in all of these data points down the line.

Below are key spending categories that lead the most important manufacturing new orders and production indices.

Accelerating Growth: air transportation services, clothing/footwear, electronics, medical care, other non-durable goods, total consumer

Decelerating Growth: durable goods, food/beverage, motor vehicles/parts

Accelerating Contraction: appliances

Decelerating Contraction: pleasure boats

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