Metalworking Forecasting Tools
Text Box: Gardner Publications, Inc. has created a number of tools to forecast the metalworking industry. Annually we publish the Capital Spending Survey and Forecast, which has been around for 39 years. In 2007, we started the Metalworking Business Index (MBI). The MBI is a monthly survey of durable goods manufacturers that functions in much the same way as the ISM's Purchasing Manager's Index. Links to these forecasting tools can be found at the bottom of the page. Also, we know that machine tool sales (and other products necessary to cut metal - like cutting tools) are driven by changes in industrial production. So, we've created a series of industry specific charts that will help you understand where industrial production is headed. Through the use of rate of change curves, we can compare two data series over time to show that one set of data is a leading indicator of a second set of data. These charts will help you understand what drives changes in industrial production in the industries that by the most machine tools. To see our forecast for machine tool sales, click on the Durable Goods link in the table below. The forecast is on the last chart on that page.
Industry Jan. '10 Dec. '09 Percentage Point Change Direction Trend (Months) Historical Direction (Lo,Avg,Hi) Rate of Change Trend (Months)
Aerospace 0.41 0.39 0.02 Growing 3 12,41,73 Faster 1
Computers & Electronics -9.07 -9.91 0.84 Contracting 9 13,13,13 Slower 3
Construction Machinery -30.97 -30.66 -0.31 Contracting 30 2,17,51 Faster 1
Engines, Turbines, & Power -29.44 -29.40 -0.04 Contracting 30 7,23,52 Faster 14
Farm Equipment -6.70 -7.40 0.70 Contracting 40 10,23,45 Slower 1
Machinery -21.28 -21.61 0.33 Contracting 23 7,22,44 Slower 1
Medical 3.58 3.23 0.35 Growing 58 20,116,219 Faster 4
Motor Vehicles & Parts -23.05 -28.20 5.15 Contracting 44 1,17,43 Slower 4
Oil -22.01 -21.05 -0.96 Contracting 10 11,20,30 Faster 10
Consumer Durable Goods -14.02 -16.97 2.95 Contracting 22 10,17,27 Slower 5
Business Durable Goods -14.39 -15.18 0.79 Contracting 15 10,16,21 Slower 2
Combined Durable Goods -14.24 -15.90 1.66 Contracting 18 15,18,24 Slower 3
Text Box: This table highlights the value of the 12-month rate of change curve for industrial production for the industries that are most critical to the metalworking market. Why do we focus on industrial production? Because it is the leading indicator for machine tool sales. As manufacturers produce more, using up more of their available capacity, they buy more capital equipment and other products needed to cut metal. The converse is also true. To get an idea of where the industrial production, and, consequently, machine tool sales, for these markets might be headed, click on the links in the table above.
For more information contact Steve Kline, Jr., financial analyst.
513-527-8800
skline2@gardnerweb.com
Links to other Financial Data from Gardner Publications, Inc.
2010 Capital Spending Survey & Forecast
Metalworking Business Index
2010 Capital Spending Survey and Forecast Demographic Reports 
Current and past surveys conducted by Gardner Research
Gardner Publications, Inc. publishes the following magazines:
Modern Machine Shop
Production Machining
Moldmaking Technology
Automotive Design & Production