Metalworking Forecasting Tools

Oil

Since Americans are better at spending than saving, it makes sense that the real personal income excluding government transfers (think social security, welfare, unemployment benefits, etc.) is a leading indicator of consumer spending, or real personal consumption expenditures. On average, changes in earnings have led changes in consumer spending by six months.

Obviously, oil prices are very difficult to predict. While oil is sold in a global market, the U.S. is the largest consumer of oil and consumper spending makes up 70% GDP in the U.S. But, the chart below does show that there is some relationship between real consumer spending and oil prices.

As oil prices rise and fall it provides more or less incentive for exploration and the development of new oil fields and more or less production from existing oil fields. These effects that arise from changing oil prices lead to changes in the industrial production for oil and gas machinery. When oil prices are rising, companies spend more money on the equipment needed to get oil out of the ground, which causes the industrial production of that equipment to rise. On average, changes in oil prices lead changes in the industrial production of oil and gas machinery by 11 months.

Industrial production of durable goods leads machine tool unit sales. For the oil machinery industry, this seems to be the case as well. Although it would be helpful to have more historical data.