Durable Goods Production at Highest Level Ever

The durable goods industrial production index was 115.0 in June 2015. In 10 of the last 11 months the index has been above 110.0. June was the 30th consecutive month that the index set a record high for the given month. And, in June, the durable goods production index reached its highest level ever. However, the one-month rate of change slowed to 1.4 percent, which was the slowest rate of growth since December 2009. December 2009 was the last time the durable goods production index contracted compared with one year ago. The annual rate of growth decelerated to 4.4 percent, which was the fourth straight month that the growth rate decelerated.

The best leading indicators for durable goods production are housing permits, capital goods new orders, and consumer durable goods spending. Housing permits seemed to have bottomed and are poised for accelerating growth. The one-month rate of change in capital goods new orders has contracted for seven months and the annual rate of change is growing at a much slower rate over the last three months. Durable goods spending is still growing at a relatively strong rate and above its historical average. 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries. Click on the links below to see how each industry is faring.

Accelerating Growth: hardware; industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components; off-road/construction machinery; petrochemical processors; power generation; textiles/clothing/leather goods; 

Decelerating Growth: aerospace; appliances; automotive; construction materials; custom processors; durable goods; electronics/computers/telecommunications; food/beverage; forming/fabricating (non-auto); furniture manufacturing; HVAC; machinery/equipment; medical; metalcutting job shops; military; oil/gas-field/mining machinery; plastic/rubber products; primary metals; printing; pumps/valves/plumbing products; ship building; wood/paper products

Accelerating Contraction: none

Decelerating Contraction: none