2007 World Machine Tool Output & Consumption Survey




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Analysis

Production
Chinese trade association officials report that their country’s estimated shipments of machine tools in 2006 grew to $7-billion, a gain of 37%. Increases posted by other Asian countries, though not as dramatic, are still impressive: South Korea boosted output 18%, Taiwan 10%, and Japan 8%, in their respective currencies.
Overall, the growth rate for Asian builders last year was 12.4%, outpacing the 10.3% gain made by the global industry as a whole. Perhaps more remarkable is that those countries were coming off an already-strong surge: From 2004 to 2005, they collectively grew their machine-tool industries by 26.9%; and in the year before that they gained by 31.3%!

The world’s biggest producer remains Japan, with $13.5-billion in shipments in the year just ended. But there was a bit of shrinkage in Japan’s lead over Germany, which also grew its production during 2006.
After Germany reunification, starting in 1991 it’s been the world’s second-largest producer (after Japan) every year except 1999 and 2002, when it edged out Japan for the number-one slot.

Germany dominates CECIMO, the Brussels-based alliance of largely Western European machine-tool trade associations. The 15 member countries of CECIMO are denoted by a double dagger (‡) in the Producers table. As a bloc they increased their shipments nearly 9% in 2006. CECIMO accounts for about 42% of estimated world production of machine tools; this year the organization sponsors the biennial EMO, the world’s largest machine-tool show, to run in Hanover, Germany, in September 2007.

Another CECIMO member, Italy, saw an 11% increase in output and remains the fourth-largest producer. (Italy will host the next EMO, in 2009.) An 18% gain by South Korea moves it into fifth place. Korean producers had been virtually tied with those in the U.S. and Taiwan; now they’re noticeably ahead.
American machine-tool production grew at a respectable 5% during 2006. The United States statistics, provided by AMT—The Association for Manufacturing Technology outside Washington, break down into $2.86-billion for metalcutting machines and $0.76-billion for forming machines, or a 79/21 split of the $3.63-billion total. Whereas most reports for this survey include an actual cutting/forming breakdown, a few do not, and in those cases the split between machine types is estimated based on previous reports.

Trade
Exports by the 29 countries in the survey rose in 2006 to $33.73-billion or by 12.6%, outpacing the rise in production by those countries. So the worldwide industry got just a little more trade-oriented in its scope.
The United States increased its machine-tool imports significantly, to $1.8-billion, or up 26% over 2005. This follows a 20% increase the year before and likely is at least partly traceable to an initiative by the American trade association.

Among other producing countries that made substantial percentage increases in exports last year are South Korea, China, and Canada.

The Exporters table includes a column that calculates each country’s exports as a percentage of its domestic production. It can be an interesting measure of a nation’s reputation as a supplier of machine tools to outside markets. Thus Switzerland’s export ratio is 89%, Taiwan’s is 79%, and Germany’s is 73%. Japan, often noted as a strong supplier of machine tools to foreign factories, has a relatively moderate export ratio, 51%.
But the export-ratio measure also can be somewhat misleading. Some entrepôt countries like Belgium have percentages far in excess of their domestic production as machines pass through their ports to other markets.

A similar caution must be used for the Importers table, whose right-hand column lists imports as a percentage of local consumption. Once again, heavy trading countries such as Belgium and Austria have import ratios greater than 100%.

Among importers, China again leads the world, with an estimated $7.1-billion in machine tools shipped in. It’s followed by the U.S., South Korea, and Germany.

Making a re-appearance on the Survey after an absence of several years is Mexico, a very heavy importer. Mexico has virtually no domestic production capacity, frustrating efforts to obtain reliable statistics. However, with the aid of outside experts Mexico is now included, with the caveat that statistics are rough estimates.

The total of this Survey’s exports always exceeds the total of reported imports. That’s because some importing countries are not included because they lack local production. With the inclusion of Mexico this time, that difference is diminished, but there are still cases like Thailand that cause disparity.
Imports tracked by the survey came to $31.2-billion, up 10.8% from 2005.

Consumption
In terms of consumption, China leads the world by far, with nearly $13-billion in installations for the year just ended. It has led every year since 2002. Consumption there grew by 20% last year compared to 2005. The value of Chinese machine-tool consumption is equal to more than 21% of the total output of all producing countries in the survey.

Simply put, one out of every five machines made anywhere in the world ends up in China.
The next-biggest consumer, Japan, installed $7.4-billion, a figure that indicates what might be a slight slowing. Third-biggest consumer is the U.S., at $6.26-billion, up 5%, followed by number-four Germany, where installations drooped by 6% in 2005, but where orders for deliveries in 2007 are likely to cause a rebound.

Consumers data is a derived statistic. It takes a country’s domestic production and adds in its imports and subtracts out its exports. The balance is said to have been apparently “consumed.”

An interesting variation on the consumption measure is consumption weighted for population (see Per-Capita). By that measure, Switzerland ranks at the top, spending more than $116 for every Swiss on new machine tools. Taiwan is next at $111, and South Korea also makes substantial per-capita expenditures on production equipment.

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