Durable Goods Production Contracts for 3rd Time in 5 Months

(Negative) The durable goods industrial production index was 106.9 in March 2016. This was the highest level of production since October. However, the one-month rate of change, -0.4 percent, contracted for the third time in five months. The annual rate of growth decelerated to 0.1 percent, which was the 13th straight month that the growth rate decelerated. This was the slowest rate of annual growth since July 2010, which was the last time durable goods production contracted.

The best leading indicators for durable goods production are housing permits, durable goods new orders, and consumer durable goods spending. Housing permits have grown at a slightly accelerating rate in recent months. The one-month rate of change in durable goods new orders has contracted for 12 of the last 14 months, but the annual rate of change may have bottomed out. Durable goods spending is growing at its historical average, but the rate of growth has been decelerating. 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries. Click on the links below to see how each industry is faring.

Accelerating Growth: furniture manufacturing; HVAC; medical; petrochemical processors; printing

Decelerating Growth: appliances; automotive; construction materials; custom processors; durable goods; electronics/computers/telecommunications; food/beverage; plastic/rubber products; 

Accelerating Contraction: aerospace; forming/fabricating (non-auto);  industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components; machinery/equipment; metalcutting job shops; off-road/construction machinery; oil/gas-field/mining machinery; power generation; wood/paper products

Decelerating Contraction: hardware; military; primary metals; pumps/valves/plumbing products; ship building; textiles/clothing/leather goods;