Durable Goods Orders Increase for Third Month

(Positive) Real durable goods new orders in October 2016 were $238,384 million. Compared with one year ago, durable goods new orders grew 1.1 percent, which marks the third month in a row and fifth time in seven months that orders have increased. Also, this was the fastest rate of growth since May. The annual rate of change, now -0.5 percent, contracted at a slower rate for the fourth month in a row and contracted at the slowest rate since it began contracting in July 2015. It looks like the annual rate of change will start growing in the next month or two.

Motor vehicle and parts orders contracted for the second time in four months. The annual rate of growth has decelerated to its slowest rate of growth since May 2010, which was the last time the annual rate of change contracted. It looks like MV&P orders will continue to decelerate on an annual basis for at least another couple of months.

Aerospace orders jumped to their highest level since December 2015 as the 1/12 rate of change showed orders increased 16.5 percent in October 2016 compared with one year ago. That was the first month of growth since May. Aerospace orders contracted more than 22 percent per month from June to September. The annual rate of contraction accelerated for the third straight month, although the rate of contraction was much slower than the end of 2015 and beginning of 2016.

Accelerating Growth: construction materials, fabricated metal products, ship/boat building

Decelerating Growth: /computers/electronics, motor vehicle/parts

Decelerating Contraction: appliances, capital goods, durable goods, off-road/construction machinery, primary metals

Accelerating Contraction: aerospace, HVAC, machinery/equipment, oil/gas-field/mining machinery, power generation