Disposable Income Growth Slowing

December real disposable income was $12,444 billion dollars (seasonally adjusted at an annual rate). This was an all-time high for real disposable income. In December, disposable income grew 3.1 percent compared with one year ago. This was the third month in a row that the rate of growth decelerated. And, it was the slowest rate of growth since March 2015 and the second slowest rate of growth since Spetember 2014. As a result, the annual rate of growth, now 3.5 percent, decelerated for the first time since disposable income began growing in June 2014. It certainly appears that disposable income growth is set to slow as we head into 2016.

Real disposable income is one of the earliest leading indicators for the following end markets: aerospace; construction materials; custom processors; electronics/computers/telecommunications equipment; food/beverage processing; forming/fabricating (non-auto); hardware; HVAC; industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components; machinery/equipment manufacturing; metalcutting job shops; oil/gas field/mining machinery; power generation; primary metals; and printing.