Cutting Tool Orders Second Highest since January 2012

According to the Cutting Tool Market Report, a joint statistical program between AMT and USCTI, real cutting tool orders were $193.5 million in October 2014. This was 1.9% more than the order total for October 2013. This was the second month in a row and that third time in five months that the month-over-month rate of change was positive. Since January 2013, cutting tool orders have contracted 17 out of 22 months. However, the annual rate of change has decelerated to its slowest rate of contraction (2.8%) since results began to be published. For September my forecast was too low 1.9%, which made my year-to-date forecast too high by 4.4%.

While it appears that cutting tool orders will continue in their trend of decelerating contraction in 2014, my forecast is calling cutting tool orders to increase 6.9% in 2015. I think the peak rate of annual growth will be in September 2015 at an annual rate of growth of 8.0%.

While there is not much history to work from with this report, there are a number of potential leading indicators for this data series, including durable goods production, capital goods new orders, and the Gardner Business Index. Based on the limited time frame, the metalworking portion of the Gardner Business Index has potential to be a good leading indicator for cutting tool orders.