Cutting Tool Orders Continue to Improve

According to the Cutting Tool Market Report, a joint statistical program between AMT and USCTI, real cutting tool orders were $156.9 million in November 2014. This was 0.7% less than the order total for November 2013. This was the first time since August that the month-over-month rate of change contracted. Despite the minor month-over-month contraction, the annual rate of change continues to contract at a slower and slower rate. This is a positive sign for cutting tool manufacturers.

For November my forecast was too high by 2.0%, which made my year-to-date forecast too high by 4.2%. My forecast is calling cutting tool orders to increase 7.0% in 2015. 

While there is not much history to work from with this report, there are a number of potential leading indicators for this data series, including durable goods production, capital goods new orders, and the Gardner Business Index. Based on the limited time frame, the metalworking portion of the Gardner Business Index has potential to be a good leading indicator for cutting tool orders.