August Durable Goods Production Contracts

(Neutral) The durable goods industrial production index was 107.2 in August 2016. In August, the index contracted 0.1 percent compared with one year ago. This was the second time in four months and third time in six months that the month-over-month rate of change contracted. However, the rates of change have been small. Since March 2015, the one-month rate of change has moved more than plus/minus 1.0 percent in just two months. As a result, the annual rate of change has been 0.0 or 0.1 percent since March 2016. 

The best leading indicators for durable goods production are housing permits, durable goods new orders, and consumer durable goods spending. Housing permits contracted for the fourth month in a row. The one-month rate of change in durable goods new orders has contracted three of the last five months. Although, the annual rate of contraction has generally decelerated since October 2015. Durable goods spending grew at a below average rate the last eight months. 

We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries. Click on the links below to see how each industry is faring.

Accelerating Growth: construction materials; hardware; medical; textiles/clothing/leather goods

Decelerating Growth: appliances; automotive; durable goods; electronics/computers/telecommunications; food/beverage; furniture manufacturing; HVAC; petrochemical processors; plastic/rubber products; printing

Accelerating Contraction: custom processors; forming/fabricating (non-auto); industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components; machinery/equipment; metalcutting job shops; oil/gas-field/mining machinery; power generation; pumps/valves/plumbing products; ship building

Decelerating Contraction: aerospace; military; off-road/construction machinery; primary metals; wood/paper products