Production Grows at Slowest Rate since January 2014
The durable goods industrial production index was 113.8 in March 2015. This was the highest level ever for the index. In seven of the last eight months the index has been above 110.0. March was the 27th consecutive month that the index set a record high for the given month. The month-over-month rate of growth was 3.0%, which was the slowest rate of growth since January 2014. The annual rate of growth decelerated to 5.2%. I think we have seen the peak rate of annual growth in industrial production for 2015.
The best leading indicators for durable goods production are housing permits, capital goods new orders, and consumer durable goods spending. Housing permits may have bottomed and are poised for accelerating growth. Capital goods new orders continue to grow at a strong rate but the most recent data has shown some softening. Durable goods spending is still growing at a relatively strong rate and above its historical average.
We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries. Click on the links below to see how each industry is faring.
Accelerating Growth: aerospace; construction materials; custom processors; industrial motors/hydraulics/mechanical components; off-road/construction machinery; petrochemical processors; plastic/rubber products; power generation; textiles/clothing/leather goods; wood/paper products
Decelerating Growth: appliances; automotive; durable goods; electronics/computers/telecommunications; food/beverage; forming/fabricating (non-auto); furniture manufacturing; HVAC; machinery/equipment; medical; metalcutting job shops; military; oil/gas-field/mining machinery; primary metals; printing; pumps/valves/plumbing products; ship building
Accelerating Contraction: none
Decelerating Contraction: hardware
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