Housing Permits Spike Sharply in November
There were 90,800 housing permits filed in November 2015. This was the fewest housing permits filed since February 2015. And, in only one month since August 2007 have housing permits been above the historical average. However, comapred with one year ago housing permits were increased 24.7 percent in October. This was the second fastest rate of month-over-month growth in housing permits since April 2013. The annual rate of growth increased for the first time since August. And, the current rate of annual growth of 10.9 percent is the fastest since April 2014.
The real 10-year treasury rate has rising compared with one year ago for a number of months now. This indicates that housing permits should be near their peak rate of annual growth. Changes in the interest rate lead changes in housing permits and construction spending by about 12 months on average.
We use housing permits as an early leading indicator for the following industries: appliances; custom processors; furniture; hardware; HVAC; off-road/construction machinery; petrochemical processors; plastics; plastic/rubber products; pumps/valves/plumbing products; textiles/clothing/leather goods; and wood/paper products.
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