Durable Goods Production Hits Highest Level Ever
According to the Federal Reserve, the durable goods industrial production index was 106.2 in September 2013. Not only was this was an all-time record for the month of September, but it was the highest level for the durable goods production index in any month ever. In addition to reaching its highest level ever, the month-over-month rate of growth increased to 4.5%, which is the fastest rate of growth since December 2012. The annual rate of change continued to slow, falling to 3.9%. However, based on the improving month-over-month rate of change, the annual rate of change looks like it is set to grow faster in the upcoming months. This would be a positive for capital equipment sales.
One of the best leading indicators for durable goods production is capital goods new orders. Data for August has been delayed due to the government shut down. However, the month-over-month rate of change in capital good new orders has grown three of the last four months. This is a positive sign for durable goods production. This is an indication that we could see accelerating growth in durable goods production in 2014.
We track industrial production and its leading indicators for a number of industries. Click on the links below to see how each industry is faring.
Accelerating Growth: appliances; construction materials; custom processors; electronics, computers, and telecommunications; furniture manufacturing; HVAC; petrochemical processors; plastics and rubber; ship building; wood and paper products
Decelerating Growth: aerospace; automotive; durable goods; food and beverage processing; forming and fabricating (non-auto); hardware; machinery and equipment; medical; metalcutting job shops; military; off-road and construction machinery; oil, gas field, and mining machinery; pumps, valves, and plumbing products
Accelerating Contraction: textiles, clothing, and leather goods
Decelerating Contraction: industrial motors, hydraulics, and mechanical components; power generation; primary metals; printing
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