Airline Passenger Miles Virtually Flat in December
According to the Bureau of Transportation, system revenue passenger miles were 66.7 billion in December 2012. This was 0.2% more than in December 2011. Also, it was the highest number of system revenue passenger miles in December since 2007. After contracting three out of four months, the month-over-month rate of change has grown the last two, albeit very slowly. The annual rate of change is growing, which is a good sign for aerospace industrial production. However, the rate of growth has been flat and very low since July 2012. This indicates that aerospace industrial production will grow more slowly in the first half of 2013.
Real personal income is a good leading indicator for system revenue passenger miles, as seen in the charts below. Based on the trend in real personal income, it seems likely that system revenue passenger miles have bottomed and will start growing faster very soon. While aerospace industrial production looks to slow in the first half of 2013, the trends in income and passenger miles could cause aerospace industrial production to grow faster in the second half of 2013. To see the trends in aerospace, go here.
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